Books About the Future

The books described here are about the futures that could be. Don't be misled. This is not a list of predictions. These books describe what is happening today in laboratories throughout the world and provide a glimpse of some of the problems and the wonders that are on our horizon.

Don't look for textbooks or mathematical formulas here. These are serious books, but the average person can read and understand them. Many of them read like a really good thriller. Some of the very real science described here may far exceed the boundaries of the wildest science fiction! Even though a number of them are several years old, they still represent the most realistic and advanced thinking about the future. Read one or read them all. The promise is that you will have a better understanding of the forces around you and that you will be able to contribute to the shaping of the future that is promised by these advanced technologies.

Stephen W. Hawking. A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes. (Toronto, New York: Bantam, 1988). 198p.

What better place to start than at the very beginning? Don't be scared of the title or the fact that this book is about quantum physics. It is extremely readable and makes even the most complex topic seem perfectly clear. Take the risk to contemplate space and time and the origin of the universe. You will be rewarded with understanding of how arcane physics research can translate into possible new realities. If we understand our past and can clearly see where we are now, even if we are still unable to predict the future, we stand a better chance of causing a desirable future to occur.

Sidney Karin and Norris Parker Smith. The SuperComputer Era. (Boston: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1987). 313p.

The desktop microcomputer is most well known to the average person, but it can be argued that the relatively rare supercomputer - the most powerful of the computers - has had more profound impact on our lives. This book tells about the machines and the people who make them. More importantly it tells about the variety of applications that range from medical research to space shuttle design to animation effects that you see in contemporary movies. Incredibly the power and capability of supercomputers continue to grow at a fantastic rate. The capabilities of yesterday's supercomputers are now commonplace on desktops, and today's supercomputers will be rapidly eclipsed by what tomorrow offers.

W. Daniel Hillis. The Connection Machine. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1985). 190p.

This one is a bit more technical and is not for the average reader, but it is still understandable by a lay person. Hillis explains how and why he designed a new type of computer, the massively parallel machine. Envision thousands of individual computers harnessed like a team of horses to work on a single problem. This computer composed of computers has the potential to structure its own way to solve a problem. Who knows what possible advances in artificial intelligence may be developed by this type of machine? Consider the possibility of machines that can evolve on their own.

CD-ROM, the New Papyrus: The Current and Future State of the Art. (Redmond, WA: Microsoft, 1986). 619p.

You've probably got a compact disc player for music by now. Did you know that this exact technology is used to store huge amounts of data for use in computer systems, for example, complete encyclopedias on a single disc? Do you know how it works? What do compact discs and bulletproof windows have in common? The book is a collection of chapters by different authors that explains in clear language how data get on and off a disc with examples of interesting applications and thoughtful discussion of pros and cons and other issues. Ready access to massive amounts of data is fundamental to the rapid changes in information technology.

Stewart Brand. The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT. (New York: Viking, 1987). 285p.

If you read only one book from this list, read this one. The Media Lab at MIT has lead the way in research on the convergence of recording, broadcasting, film, and publishing with the goal of involving you, the audience, directly in the media. Play and learning are one and the same in the Media Lab. There are animation projects, robots made from LEGOs, holograms, "talking heads", and much more. The result of all the fun is solid technology that benefits us in very direct ways.

Howard Rheingold. Virtual Reality. (New York: Summit Books, 1991). 415p.

You've seen it in the movies (remember TRON?). Imagine being able to step through the looking glass of your computer terminal and seeing, feeling, moving, and interacting with a world that exists only electronically. The conventional rules of time and space are suspended. Powerful information resources are at your beck and call. Welcome to the world of artificial or virtual reality. However, it has escaped from the movie special effects studio and now has business, medical, and military applications. Rheingold provides a terrific guided tour through today's reality of virtual reality.

K. Eric Drexler. Engines of Creation. (New York: Anchor Press, 1987). 298p.

Drexler wants to develop molecular sized robots equipped with artificial intelligence that can be placed inside a human body to "fix things up". An injection of these robots could charge off and eliminate a cancerous situation. The miniature robots could then dismantle themselves to be harmlessly flushed from the body. Perhaps you could have one robot in every cell in your body with the job to watch over DNA to trigger regenerative activity to repair damaged molecules so that nothing ever wears out. In other words, you would be forever young. These robots could even be equipped to modify your entire appearance and to change you into another person on command. Impossible? Read the book and find out. Two thoughts to pique your interest: Drexler is a respected researcher who is actively working on these concepts, and there have already been numerous laboratory successes at creating specially tailored molecules to perform selected tasks ranging from cleaning up oil spills to use in drug therapies.

Grant Fjermedal. The Tomorrow Makers: A Brave New World of Living-Brain Machines. (New York: Macmillan, 1986). 272p.

Here you will find the best overview of the leading edge in robotics and the associated developments in artificial reality. As with the other books you will learn about amazing developments that exist today and you will learn what the researchers plan to do next. You'll discover some of the problems with building mobile robots and equipping them with enough intelligence to be useful, and you'll be entertained by the clever, counterintuitive solutions to some of those problems. The last part of the book moves from examination of the technology to focus on the potential societal impact and the ethical responsibilities that we have before us right now. Fjermedal quotes another of the recommended authors, Hans Moravec, "We are on the threshold of a change in the universe comparable to the transition from non-life to life." Read the book and decide for yourself.

Hans Moravec. Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). 214p.
Roger Penrose. The Emperor's New Mind: Concerning Computers, Minds, and the Laws of Physics. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989). 466p.
Robert L. Nadeau. Mind, Machines, and Human Consciousness. (Chicago: Contemporary Books, 1991). 247p.

The scientist, the doubting philosopher, and the pragmatic humanist: welcome to a serious argument about the future of humanity.

Moravec posits a postbiological society. Interested in immortality? Create a computer copy of your mind and download it into a robotic chassis. You could then repair or upgrade your hardware whenever you had the need or desire. Another possibility is an evolution of artificial intelligence to a level of self support in which humans are no longer needed. A good bet is that you think these are impossible ideas. Read the book and you'll learn not only that the possibility exists but that this leading mobile robotics researcher thinks that it could happen in our lifetimes. Some of the envisioned scenarios are more outrageous than any science fiction you can find. The scary part is that they seem so plausible.

Penrose is perhaps the most respected and articulate of the scholarly community who argues that the essence of humanity can never be replicated by a machine. In other words, "artificial" and "intelligence" are two words that will never properly belong side by side. His book is full of formulas and is pretty tough reading, but it is worthwhile to see how he makes the case.

Nadeau points out that the arguments about artificial intelligence have been going on for a long time and that they have missed the important point. It doesn't matter whether or not an artificial intelligence program has the potential to become conscious exactly like a human being. What matters is whether it can become so sophisticated in a world of evolving, self-replicating machines that this alien machine consciousness will displace human consciousness. If you take the evolutionary side of the argument, it is easy to dismiss the ethical issues. If you choose to argue solely about the replication of human consciousness, it is easy to dismiss the dangers since you can make a good case that it will not happen. If you care about the essence of humanity, you must educate yourself on these matters in order to guide the process. Change will happen with or without you.

Koji Kobayashi. Computers and Communication: A Vision of C&C. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986). 190p.

Twenty years ago the dreams of machine translation of languages seemed to be disappearing into the future. Today, however, with the hardware and software advances that seemed implausible then, it is reasonable to think of instantaneous translation while talking to someone on the telephone: you could call someone in Japan, she could speak Japanese, you could speak English, and an intervening program would make sure that you both understood each other. Primitive systems that can do this (albeit slowly and with a number of errors) already exist. Kobayashi joined NEC Corporation in Japan in 1929 and led it to today. He shares his vision then and his vision for the future as he describes what it means to combine computer and communications technology.

Clifford Stoll. The Cuckoo's Egg: Tracking a Spy Through the Maze of Computer Espionage. (New York: Doubleday, 1989). 326p.

Are you interested in the resolution of a 75 cent accounting error in a university computer system? Me neither. However, Stoll's rambunctious perseverance turned into a major spy case that involved most of the U.S. military networks and an international spy operation. This is a thriller of the highest order, and it's all true. Even if you aren't interested in computers or networks, read this one if you like a good mystery story. What does this have to do with the future? Along the way, Stoll uncovered gaping holes in the security of all types of computer systems from financial networks to medical equipment. He discovered that our lives can literally be in danger from computer misuse, abuse, and terrorism thanks to exponentially increasing connections between computers. What is the future environment that will serve us best as the global network develops?

David Brin. Earth. (New York: Bantam, 1990). 601p.

Sometimes the best description of advanced technology and the societal implications come from brilliant fiction writers. Brin is one of those writers. He takes us to the future but one that is not too far away. His global computer network might seem like fantasy, but the reality is that it is not much different from the network connections that exist today for academics and other researchers. Read this novel and share his vision for the problems and, better yet, the possibilities of computers, networks, and artificial intelligence.